By Ali Elias
According to an article published by Reuters, a 90-day trade truce between China and the United States has triggered a sharp rise in container shipping demand, fueling a likely rebound in China’s industrial output—and with it, coal-fired power generation.
Despite record-setting installations of wind and solar capacity—now surpassing thermal power installations—China’s renewables only met 22.5% of electricity demand in Q1 2025. Baseload sources like coal, gas, and nuclear remain essential for powering factories and stabilizing the grid.
Following the truce announcement, bookings for container ships from China to the U.S. surged 277% within two days. Analysts say this signals an imminent spike in manufacturing, which will drive energy use and tilt demand back toward fossil fuels.
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed electricity demand fell 1.3% in January and February but rebounded by 1.8% in March. Wind and solar generation hit record levels in Q1, but partly because industrial demand was still sluggish.
That’s expected to change quickly. “The rise in manufacturing means a rise in stable, on-demand energy—something wind and solar cannot yet reliably provide,” Reuters’ columnist Gavin Maguire noted.
China’s total wind and solar capacity now stands at 1,482 GW—more than half of its installed capacity—but grid limitations and variability mean these sources still contribute a smaller share to real-time power generation.
Climate analysts at Ember say China is on a clear path toward a low-carbon energy future, with coal’s share in the electricity mix down from 80% in the mid-2000s to 54.8% in 2024. However, critics argue that the surge in manufacturing demand may stall that transition, at least temporarily.
With summer—the peak demand season—approaching, coal and gas could see renewed use. The timing is awkward for environmental advocates, as the climate gains of recent years face pressure from China’s economic rebound.