By Ali Elias
Nigeria maintained its compliance with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production quota for the fifth consecutive month in September, with average crude oil output rising to 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator disclosed this in a statement published on its website on Tuesday, October 13, saying the September average represented 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
The commission also reported that daily production peaked at 1.84 million barrels during the month, while the lowest daily output stood at 1.68 million barrels. These peak and low figures should be distinguished from the monthly average used to assess quota compliance.
The latest performance extends a five-month run in which Nigeria has consistently met or exceeded its assigned quota, producing an average of 1.53 million bpd in May, 1.55 million bpd in June, 1.51 million bpd in July, 1.50 million bpd in August and 1.53 million bpd in September.
The figures indicate a recovery in crude oil production following years of operational disruptions, pipeline constraints and other challenges that have limited Nigeria’s ability to maximise output from its petroleum assets.
NUPRC attributed the September performance primarily to stable production operations across most producing assets and the absence of major pipeline outages during the period. It said improved operational stability supported production uptime and more efficient crude evacuation.
The commission added that operators and other industry stakeholders had continued efforts to improve operational efficiency, maintain asset integrity and enhance production reliability.
Output stability offers economic opportunity
The sustained compliance with Nigeria’s OPEC quota is significant for an economy heavily dependent on petroleum exports for foreign exchange earnings and a substantial share of public revenue.
Higher and more predictable crude oil production can strengthen export receipts, improve the government’s revenue outlook and support foreign-exchange liquidity, provided production is sustained and international market conditions remain favourable.
However, meeting the quota should not be confused with fully exploiting Nigeria’s production potential. The September average of 1.53 million bpd was only 30,000 barrels per day above the 1.5 million bpd quota, while the reported peak of 1.84 million barrels demonstrates that output can rise considerably above the monthly average under favourable operating conditions.
The difference between peak and average production also underscores the importance of consistency. A high-output day is encouraging, but its economic value depends on the ability to sustain production, evacuate crude efficiently and minimise avoidable interruptions.
For our policymakers, the next challenge is to convert the recent run of quota compliance into durable production growth. That will require continued investment, reliable pipelines and evacuation infrastructure, effective security arrangements and timely resolution of technical problems affecting producing assets.
Forcados leads terminal production
A breakdown of average daily crude oil and condensate production by terminal and stream showed that Forcados Terminal ranked first in September with 320.32 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), followed by Bonny Terminal with 303.27 kbpd.
The terminal figures provide a useful indication of the contribution of major producing and export streams to national output. They also underline the importance of maintaining reliable evacuation arrangements at key terminals, where operational disruptions can affect the volume of crude available for export.
The regulator did not, in the statement, provide a detailed breakdown of the specific contribution of individual operational interventions to the national production increase.
Maintaining the momentum
Nigeria’s fifth consecutive month of meeting its OPEC quota offers evidence of improving operational stability in the upstream petroleum sector. Yet the relatively narrow margin above the quota in September shows why sustained improvement remains important.
The economic test will be whether production can rise consistently without recurring pipeline outages, asset failures or evacuation bottlenecks, while ensuring that higher output translates into stronger public revenue and foreign-exchange earnings.
For Africa’s largest crude oil producer, the latest figures represent progress. The more consequential milestone will be maintaining that progress over time and expanding production capacity without sacrificing operational reliability or transparency in the reporting of national output.
Source: Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), September 2026 production update, published October 13, 2026