By Rareview Energydesk
LAGOS — Nigeria has recorded a landmark shift in its downstream petroleum trade, emerging as a net exporter of petrol for the first time, a development largely driven by rising production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals.
Industry data released by global market intelligence firm Kpler shows that petrol imports into the country plunged to 41,000 barrels per day (b/d) in March — the lowest level on record — while exports climbed to 44,000 b/d, placing Nigeria in a net export position of about 3,000 b/d for the month.
The turnaround marks a dramatic reversal for Africa’s largest oil producer, which for decades relied heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite its vast crude reserves.
Analysts attribute the shift to increased throughput at the Dangote refinery, which processed approximately 565,000 b/d of crude in March — its second-highest intake since commencing operations in late 2023 — signalling improved operational efficiency and higher product yields.
“This is a structural inflection point for Nigeria’s downstream sector,” an energy analyst familiar with West African fuel markets said. “For the first time, domestic refining is not just meeting local demand but creating surplus for export.”
The refinery has also begun expanding its footprint beyond Nigeria, exporting petrol to East Africa for the first time. A 317,000-barrel cargo was shipped to Mozambique in March, with another consignment scheduled for April delivery to Beira.
The move underscores shifting regional trade dynamics, as African buyers increasingly seek alternatives to traditional suppliers from the Middle East Gulf amid supply disruptions and pricing volatility.
Market watchers say Nigeria’s entry into the export market could alter established supply chains across sub-Saharan Africa, positioning the country as a key supplier of refined products on the continent.
The development is also expected to reverberate beyond Africa. Europe’s petrol market, already grappling with oversupply, could face additional pressure as Nigerian exports compete for market share.
The President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, recently credited ongoing reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for creating an enabling environment for large-scale investments in domestic refining.
For decades, Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports strained foreign exchange reserves and exposed the economy to global supply shocks. The latest milestone signals progress in reversing that trend, with domestic refining capacity beginning to meet — and now exceed — national consumption needs.