By Ali Elias
Lagos — The Dangote Refinery, now operating at a scale once thought ambitious for Nigeria, is rapidly altering the country’s fuel landscape — and for the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the task is to ensure that such transformation is harnessed, regulated, and expanded.
Speaking Thursday at the annual conference of the Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria (NAEC), Farouk Ahmed, CEO of NMDPRA, pronounced that the plant’s operations have already reshaped supply dynamics.
“Without a shadow of doubt, the operation of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres, undoubtedly with potential for future ramp up…”
He said that Nigeria’s national daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) hovers around 50 million litres.
“We need to encourage the biggest refinery to do all it can to begin to shape up in order for us to have local consumption and supply ramped up,” Ahmed added.
But disruption alone is not enough, according to the regulator. To buttress energy security, NMDPRA plans to leverage the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 to mandate petroleum product stockholding, so the country can buffer itself against supply shocks.
“We must operationalize petroleum product stock in line with the provisions of the PIA 2021 to provide a buffer against major supply disruptions,” Ahmed said.
He further emphasised that NMDPRA is fast‑tracking licensing standards for storage and depot operations, as well as intensifying surveillance of product movements to crack down on adulteration, hoarding, arbitrage, and accidents in truck‑in‑transit.
Despite operating gains, Ahmed acknowledged how narrow Nigeria’s energy base remains.
“As a country, Nigeria is in urgent need of a diversified investment approach in our energy mix… as we invest in that infrastructure, we must also ensure we diversify our energy sources and reduce dependency from any single fuel,” he said.
He drew attention to structural gaps: “the number of LPG filling plants in the country is less than 3,000, while the CNG compression station is less than 50 for a country of over 200 million citizens.”
In his view, a deliberate shift toward alternative energy could generate jobs, broaden government revenue streams, and support more inclusive growth.
Ahmed’s remarks come amid growing signs that Nigeria’s fuel import dependency is waning. Reports suggest petrol importation has dropped from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres as of April 2025. Additionally, the Dangote Refinery has announced plans to stop importing crude by year’s end, aiming to rely fully on local crude supply.
Still, the journey is fraught with obstacles. The refinery is sourcing significant volumes of U.S. crude, reportedly up to one third of its feedstock, due to shortcomings in local supply. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC is in talks to extend its naira based crude supply contract with Dangote, amid challenges meeting volume commitments.
Other constraints loom: uneven infrastructure in storage and distribution, weak enforcement of regulation, and the risk that gains remain concentrated rather than broadly felt across Nigeria’s energy ecosystem.
The gains from Dangote’s operations are real: more local fuel, fewer import bills, a stronger domestic refining presence. But these gains are fragile if not guarded with robust regulatory frameworks, infrastructure investments, and strategic oversight.
Ahmed’s call for expanded licensing, surveillance, stockholding, and energy diversification is timely — but its success will depend on how well government agencies, private sector players, and communities align around execution.
If Nigeria can turn this moment into lasting institutional capacity, the Dangote refinery may not only reshape fuel supply — it could mark the turn when Nigeria began to finally control its own energy destiny.
Yet the path is narrow. Without disciplined regulation, enforcement, and infrastructure investment, the refinery’s gains risk becoming isolated benefits — a powerful engine running in isolation rather than driving national transformation.