By Ali Elias
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is shaking up global fuel markets as it ramps up production, cutting into Europe’s once-lucrative gasoline exports to West Africa and leaving many refiners across the continent under pressure.
Since operations began in September 2024, the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) facility near Lagos has steadily increased output. Once heavily dependent on European imports, West Africa is now sourcing a large share of its petrol locally, thanks to Dangote’s rising production.
Industry figures show European gasoline exports to West Africa fell sharply in the first seven months of 2025, averaging about 285,000 bpd—a one-third drop compared to last year. In July alone, Dangote refinery processed a record 595,000 bpd of crude, signaling its rapid march toward full capacity.
The shift has hit European refiners hard, especially those focused on gasoline production. Nigeria, which used to buy one in every five barrels of gasoline produced in Europe, now accounts for just one in ten, according to data from Argus Media.
“European refiners with gasoline-heavy output have been hardest hit,” said one analyst. “With Nigerian demand waning and inventories piling up in Europe, profit margins are sinking.”
Gasoline stocks in the Rotterdam hub—Europe’s refining and trading center—have climbed 9 percent in the past year, pushing prices lower and squeezing profits. Some refiners are already faltering. In July, the Lindsey refinery in the UK, owned by US firm Prax, shut down after failing to find a buyer, despite producing around 50,000 bpd of petrol.
Experts warn that unless Europe reduces gasoline production by as much as 600,000 bpd or finds new markets, more closures could follow. But with Latin America and Asia also becoming more competitive, options remain limited.
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery continues to benefit from Nigeria’s strong local demand and government support to cut fuel imports. The plant is designed to process a wide range of crude grades and produce not just petrol but also diesel, aviation fuel, and other refined products.
Analysts say this flexibility, backed by billions of dollars in investment, has made Dangote a game-changer for Africa and beyond. “This is not a short-term trend,” a refining consultant said. “Dangote has redrawn the map, and European players must adapt—or risk being left behind.”