By Ali Elias
In a world where diplomacy often runs on predictable rhythms and carefully crafted statements, US President Donald Trump has thrown the rulebook out the window. In fact, if there’s any method to his often erratic tone, it lies in what political scientists dub the “Madman Theory.”
Asked recently whether he would join Israel in striking Iran, Trump answered with a shrug of ambiguity: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.” Then, despite suggesting a two-week pause for negotiations, he ordered a bombing anyway.
“It’s very hard to know what’s coming from day to day,” says Julie Norman, professor of politics at University College London. “And that has always been Trump’s approach.”
The theory behind this approach isn’t new. Originally used by President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War, the Madman Theory is based on convincing adversaries that a leader is irrational or volatile enough to do anything—so they better not push him. It’s psychological warfare dressed up as foreign policy, a high-stakes poker game where the biggest bluff might win the pot—or blow up the table.
According to Professor Peter Trubowitz of the London School of Economics, Trump’s foreign policy has become “arguably the most centralised” since Nixon, with decisions resting squarely on his temperament. “Whatever understanding those countries [in Europe] have with the United States, on security, on economic or other matters, they’re now subject to negotiation at a moment’s notice,” he explains.
Trump’s unpredictability has evolved from character trait to core strategy, and many believe it’s been disturbingly effective.
During his second presidency, Trump insulted traditional allies like Canada and Denmark, suggested military action to annex Greenland, and threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO commitments. At the same time, he flattered strongmen like Vladimir Putin and bullied Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky into granting mineral rights to U.S. interests.
“It’s one of his takeaways from negotiating in the world of real estate,” says Trubowitz. “My sense is that most people in Trump’s orbit think that unpredictability is a good thing because it allows Donald Trump to leverage America’s clout for maximum gain.”
Just months after Trump’s renewed bluster on defence, NATO allies—including the UK—agreed to raise their defence spending to an unprecedented 5% of GDP. “You will achieve something NO president in decades could get done,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reportedly gushed to Trump in a private message—one Trump promptly leaked.
But even as allies bend over backward to stay in Trump’s good graces, adversaries like Putin and Iran remain unmoved. Trump recently expressed “disappointment” after Putin refused to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iran, bombed by Trump despite promises to avoid more Middle Eastern conflicts, may now be edging closer to acquiring nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
“I think it’s highly likely Iran will make the decision to pursue a nuclear weapon,” says Professor Michael Desch of Notre Dame University. “The lesson of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi is not lost on other dictators facing the US. The Iranians will desperately feel the need for the ultimate deterrent.”
“There is a real danger in making unpredictability the centrepiece of global diplomacy,” says Norman. “People won’t want to do business with the US if they don’t trust the US in negotiations, if they’re not sure the US will stand by them in defence and security issues.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently stated that Europe must become operationally independent of the US. “The importance of the chancellor’s comment is that it’s a recognition that US strategic priorities are changing,” says Trubowitz. “They’re not going to snap back to the way they were before Trump took office.”
Allies may now be investing in new armaments and strategic autonomy, but that process takes time. As Professor Desch notes, “Europe, if it had to go it alone, would also require a significant increase in its independent armaments production capability. Manpower would also be an issue.”
So, has Trump’s unpredictability forced the most dramatic change to the Western security architecture since the Cold War? “It has contributed,” says Trubowitz. “But more fundamentally, Trump has uncorked something… Politics in the United States has changed.”
Anthony Scaramucci, Trump’s former communications director, offered a blunt assessment: “Mr Rutte, he’s trying to embarrass you, sir. He’s literally sitting on Air Force One laughing at you.”
In the end, the Madman Theory may not be a theory at all—but a mirror of Trump’s reality. Whether it’s strategy or instinct, it’s working—not because it’s brilliant, but because it’s unsettling. That alone has made allies nervous, adversaries cautious, and global politics far more combustible.
But here’s the danger: If the world starts to see the US as volatile and transactional, the global trust that underpins diplomacy might be gone for good. Chaos can move nations—but it can also break the very system that holds them together.
You can read the original article in BBC