By Ali Elias
Petrol prices in Nigeria, currently ranging between N900 and N950 per litre, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, potentially reaching as low as N500 per litre, according to industry experts. The anticipated reduction stems from a combination of factors tied to ongoing reforms and improvements in the downstream oil sector.
The federal government’s deregulation policy has been a key driver of competition and efficiency in the petroleum sector, leading to early signs of price reduction. Additionally, the upcoming full operation of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Dangote refineries, along with the reactivation of modular refineries, is expected to boost local production and lessen reliance on imports. The Federal Executive Council’s naira-for-crude policy, allowing local refineries to pay for crude oil in naira, is another step toward making fuel more affordable for Nigerians.
Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption currently stands at 40 million litres, but only 20.5% of this demand is met through local refining. The Dangote Refinery contributes approximately 7 million litres, while the NNPC adds 1.2 million litres. Despite these contributions, about 31.8 million litres are still imported. With the recent operational start of the Port Harcourt Refinery and the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company, the country’s local refining capacity is gradually increasing.
Experts in the oil industry are optimistic about the future. Ukadike Chinedu, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), called the revitalization of refineries a “game-changer” that will likely push prices below N500 per litre in 2025. Similarly, Billy Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), highlighted recent price reductions by the NNPC and Dangote Refinery as evidence of the benefits of a deregulated market. Meanwhile, Iche Idoko, Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), pointed out that competition among local refiners will further drive down prices while improving product quality.
However, challenges remain. The Kaduna Refinery is still under rehabilitation, with no clear completion date due to financial and technical constraints. Private marketers also continue to import significant volumes of petrol to meet demand.
Despite these hurdles, the consistent availability of locally refined products and a competitive market environment are expected to sustain downward pressure on prices. As local refineries ramp up operations and foreign exchange policies stabilize, Nigerians could see the cost of petrol drop to more affordable levels by 2025, signaling positive progress for consumers and the downstream oil sector alike.