By Ono Yima
Nigeria’s state-owned energy firm, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), is planning a major investment drive aimed at unlocking long-idle oil fields and reversing years of underinvestment in the country’s upstream sector.
Senior industry sources say NNPC is seeking to mobilise at least $30 billion in new investments by the end of the decade, with fresh field development expected to commence from next year. The plan signals a strategic shift by the national oil company as Africa’s largest crude producer struggles to stabilise output and retain investor confidence amid security, regulatory and funding challenges.
According to officials familiar with the plan, NNPC expects to take a series of final investment decisions (FIDs) through 2026, targeting a mix of brownfield and greenfield developments across Nigeria’s prolific oil basins. While the specific assets have not been disclosed, the company believes it can raise more than half of the funding target through a combination of equity partnerships, asset optimisation and project-level financing.
The strategy involves a dual-track approach: developing some oil fields directly while offering others to investors through competitive bidding rounds expected to begin early next year. In parallel, NNPC is reviewing its portfolio with a view to divesting non-performing or marginal assets, freeing capital for projects with stronger commercial prospects.
The renewed push comes at a critical time for Nigeria’s oil industry. Crude production has remained below OPEC quotas for several years, constrained by aging infrastructure, pipeline vandalism, oil theft and prolonged investment delays. These challenges have eroded government revenues and weakened Nigeria’s standing in the global energy market.
NNPC has set ambitious production targets. The company aims to lift output by five per cent to about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with 2025 levels. Over the longer term, it is targeting 4 million barrels per day by 2030, a goal that would require unprecedented levels of capital, security improvements and operational efficiency.
Beyond oil, gas development is emerging as a central pillar of the company’s growth strategy. NNPC plans to complete the long-delayed $2.8 billion Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline from early next year, with phased connections already underway. Once fully operational, the pipeline is expected to supply gas to northern Nigeria, including Abuja, supporting power generation, fertiliser plants and industrial clusters.
Energy analysts say the AKK pipeline could be transformative, particularly for northern Nigeria, where limited access to gas has constrained industrial growth and electricity supply.
However, significant hurdles remain. Global investors are increasingly cautious about long-term fossil fuel projects due to the energy transition, while Nigeria’s operating environment—marked by insecurity in the Niger Delta and regulatory uncertainty—continues to weigh on investment decisions.
Analysts argue that the success of NNPC’s investment drive will depend on its ability to de-risk projects, enforce contract sanctity, improve security around critical infrastructure and demonstrate commercially viable project economics.
An NNPC spokesperson declined to comment on the details of the development plans.
If executed effectively, the investment push could mark a turning point for Nigeria’s upstream sector, helping to unlock stranded resources, boost output and reposition the country as a competitive destination for energy investment in a rapidly changing global market.